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25 Oktober Let it beWhen I find myself in times of trouble, Mother Mary comes to me Speaking words of wisdom, let it be And in my hour of darkness She is standing right in front of me Speaking words of wisdom, let it be
Let it be, let it be, Let it be, let it be Whisper words of wisdom, let it be
And when the broken hearted people living in the world agree There will be an answer, let it be For though they may be parted, there is still a chance that they will see There will be an answer, let it be
Let it be, let it be, Let it be, let it be There will be an answer, let it be
Let it be, let it be, Let it be, let it be Whisper words of wisdom, let it be
And when the night is cloudy there is still a light that shines on me Shine until tomorrow, let it be I wake up to the sound of music, Mother Mary comforts me
Let it be, let it be, let it be, yeah, let it be There will be an answer, let it be Let it be, let it be, let it be, yeah, let it be
09 November 谁说天上不会掉馅饼呢
From: Dr Tijan Suleman. African Development Bank Burkina Faso (ADB) Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso. Dear friend, It will be a surprise for you to receive this mail. Welcome this letter in the name of Allah. I am Dr Tijan Suleman, the director of the accounts & auditing dept .at the African Development Bank Ouagadougou-west Africa. With due respect, I have decided to contact you on a business transaction that will be beneficial to both of us. At the bank's last accounts/auditing evaluations, my staffs came across an old account which was being maintained by a foreign client who we learnt was among the deceased passengers of an airline crash on 6th Nov. 2002.since the deceased was unable to run this account since his death. The account has remained dormant without the knowledge of his family since it was put in a safe deposit account in the bank for future investment by the client. Since his demise, even the members of his family have applied for claims over this fund and it has been in the safe deposit account until we discovered that it cannot be claimed since our client is a foreign national and we are sure that he has no next of kin here to file claims over the money. As the director of the dept, this discovery was brought to my office so as to decide what is to be done. With the few personnel in my dept, we decided to seek ways through which to transfer this money out of the bank and out of the country too. The total amount in the accounts is ten million five hundred thousand dollars (USD 10,500,000.00).with our positions as staffs of the bank, we are handicapped because we cannot operate foreign accounts and cannot lay bonafide claim over this money. While we were contemplating on what to do, a friend of mine who works with the chamber of commerce and industry recommended your personality to me and advised I should ask you for help to transfer this money out of the country. The client is a foreign national and you will only be asked to act as his next of kin and I will supply you with all the necessary information and bank data to assist you in being able to transfer this money to any bank of your choice where this money could be transferred into. I and my partners have decided to give away forty %(40%) to you for your assistance and ten (10%) for any expenses that might arise during the transaction of this transfer. we want to assure you that this transaction is absolutely risk free since we work in this bank which is why you should be confident in the success of this transaction because you will be updated with information as at when desired. We will please wish you keep this transaction secret as we are hoping to retire with our share of this money at the end of transaction which will be when this money is safely in your account. We will then come over to your country for sharing according to the previously agreed percentages. You might even have to advise us on possibilities of investment in your country or elsewhere of our choice. May Allah help you to help us to a restive retirement, Amen. Please for further information and enquiries feel free to contact me through my email address or call me on this number 00 226 78 14 22 53 for oral discussion. I am waiting for your urgent response!!! Thanks and remain blessed. Dr Tijan Suleman. 24 Oktober 惊变15天其实没有什么惊不惊变，只是前段看过一个烂片叫惊变28天，为了表达起这个名字的内在含义，我需要描述一下那部片子的烂。其实刚看不久我就察觉到这是一部烂片，但是一个疑惑摆在心头，他这么烂为了说明什么。于是，我坚持着把它看完了，发现它并不是要去说明什么，只是用最恶心的镜头填充胶片，正是这种俗不可耐的表现手法，令我在看后几个月的时间里，头脑中不时浮现出影片中血腥、惊悚、恶心的场景。可以说，烂不要紧，只要烂的彻底、烂的坦诚、烂的潇洒、烂的明明白白、烂的义无反顾、打心眼里把隐藏在内心深处的烂真心实意地摆出来，就好像heroes之间交流心得那样，没有人再会去讨论什么to烂，or not to 烂的问题。虽然它很烂，但是我喜欢。
第三学期还有课着实地麻烦，大多数老师还是好的，第一节和最后一节去搞一下，这在数值分析中称为具有两端约束的样条逼近问题，这种问题是很精通的，但是张某某晓东，总是点名，这种多约束条件的插值问题实在不好解决。昨天上课前还念了一个什么通知，迟到了没听全，貌似是迎接研究生教学评估的，只听到有两条是，尚可不许睡觉，逮住警告；不许迟到，逮住记过。有点描述中的当年严打的味道，明显是缺乏法制观念的体现。
八号，长假结束，我们迎来了期中考核。中午通知，王亚光老师忘了出卷子了，晚上的考试改在周五上午。出卷子又不是做卷子，但是老师说不能随便出，要认认真真出，严谨的治学态度让我们深为感动。貌似那天正好台风，晚上躲在寝室听窗外风雨飘摇，才体会到老师良苦用心。
九号，考代数，低估了，考的有些糊涂，也许是很久没考了，花了半个多小时提醒自己要正确对待考试。
十号，考随机。有句传言叫随机考随机过，这是谣言。考完踏着夜色就出发了，陆家嘴的夜色很好。
十一号，徐总意味深长地谈了一次话。下午发现原定周五的数模推迟了，计划全乱套。
十二号，考分析，老师嘎厚道。
十九号，到张江折返跑一次。晚上回来找数模资料，找了300+M，感觉自己数据挖掘能力不错。搞到三点
二十号，七点起，去电信楼实验室，一天时间，大概有了方向，但是感冒了
二十一号，早晨我开始就打字，同队编程实现，这种状态一直持续到二十二号中午，体力还是不错的，但是熬夜太耗，白加黑白片吃了不少，黑片没动。交论文时，看到前面两组弃权了，感觉不错。回去从下午一直睡到第二天早起，还是感觉太累。
16 Oktober Not because they are easy, but because they are hard“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”--President John F. Kennedy Here’s the speech President Kennedy gave when he announced his Apollo project at Rice University in Houston, September 12, 1962. "President Pitzer, Mr. Vice President, Governor, Congressman Thomas, Senator Wiley, and Congressman Miller, Mr. Webb, Mr. Bell, scientists, distinguished guests, and ladies and gentlemen: I appreciate your president having made me an honorary visiting professor, and I will assure you that my first lecture will be very brief. I am delighted to be here and I'm particularly delighted to be here on this occasion. We meet at a college noted for knowledge, in a city noted for progress, in a State noted for strength, and we stand in need of all three, for we meet in an hour of change and challenge, in a decade of hope and fear, in an age of both knowledge and ignorance. The greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds. Despite the striking fact that most of the scientists that the world has ever known are alive and working today, despite the fact that this Nation’s own scientific manpower is doubling every 12 years in a rate of growth more than three times that of our population as a whole, despite that, the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension. No man can fully grasp how far and how fast we have come, but condense, if you will, the 50,000 years of man’s recorded history in a time span of but a half-century. Stated in these terms, we know very little about the first 40 years, except at the end of them advanced man had learned to use the skins of animals to cover them. Then about 10 years ago, under this standard, man emerged from his caves to construct other kinds of shelter. Only five years ago man learned to write and use a cart with wheels. Christianity began less than two years ago. The printing press came this year, and then less than two months ago, during this whole 50-year span of human history, the steam engine provided a new source of power. Newton explored the meaning of gravity. Last month electric lights and telephones and automobiles and airplanes became available. Only last week did we develop penicillin and television and nuclear power, and now if America's new spacecraft succeeds in reaching Venus, we will have literally reached the stars before midnight tonight. This is a breathtaking pace, and such a pace cannot help but create new ills as it dispels old, new ignorance, new problems, new dangers. Surely the opening vistas of space promise high costs and hardships, as well as high reward. So it is not surprising that some would have us stay where we are a little longer to rest, to wait. But this city of Houston, this State of Texas, this country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them. This country was conquered by those who moved forward--and so will space. William Bradford, speaking in 1630 of the founding of the Plymouth Bay Colony, said that all great and honorable actions are accompanied with great difficulties, and both must be enterprised and overcome with answerable courage. If this capsule history of our progress teaches us anything, it is that man, in his quest for knowledge and progress, is determined and cannot be deterred. The exploration of space will go ahead, whether we join in it or not, and it is one of the great adventures of all time, and no nation which expects to be the leader of other nations can expect to stay behind in the race for space. Those who came before us made certain that this country rode the first waves of the industrial revolutions, the first waves of modern invention, and the first wave of nuclear power, and this generation does not intend to founder in the backwash of the coming age of space. We mean to be a part of it--we mean to lead it. For the eyes of the world now look into space, to the moon and to the planets beyond, and we have vowed that we shall not see it governed by a hostile flag of conquest, but by a banner of freedom and peace. We have vowed that we shall not see space filled with weapons of mass destruction, but with instruments of knowledge and understanding. Yet the vows of this Nation can only be fulfilled if we in this Nation are first, and, therefore, we intend to be first. In short, our leadership in science and in industry, our hopes for peace and security, our obligations to ourselves as well as others, all require us to make this effort, to solve these mysteries, to solve them for the good of all men, and to become the world's leading space-faring nation. We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won, and they must be won and used for the progress of all people. For space science, like nuclear science and all technology, has no conscience of its own. Whether it will become a force for good or ill depends on man, and only if the United States occupies a position of pre-eminence can we help decide whether this new ocean will be a sea of peace or a new terrifying theater of war. I do not say the we should or will go unprotected against the hostile misuse of space any more than we go unprotected against the hostile use of land or sea, but I do say that space can be explored and mastered without feeding the fires of war, without repeating the mistakes that man has made in extending his writ around this globe of ours. There is no strife, no prejudice, no national conflict in outer space as yet. Its hazards are hostile to us all. Its conquest deserves the best of all mankind, and its opportunity for peaceful cooperation many never come again. But why, some say, the moon? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain? Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic? Why does Rice play Texas? We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. It is for these reasons that I regard the decision last year to shift our efforts in space from low to high gear as among the most important decisions that will be made during my incumbency in the office of the Presidency. In the last 24 hours we have seen facilities now being created for the greatest and most complex exploration in man's history. We have felt the ground shake and the air shattered by the testing of a Saturn C-1 booster rocket, many times as powerful as the Atlas which launched John Glenn, generating power equivalent to 10,000 automobiles with their accelerators on the floor. We have seen the site where the F-1 rocket engines, each one as powerful as all eight engines of the Saturn combined, will be clustered together to make the advanced Saturn missile, assembled in a new building to be built at Cape Canaveral as tall as a 48 story structure, as wide as a city block, and as long as two lengths of this field. Within these last 19 months at least 45 satellites have circled the earth. Some 40 of them were "made in the United States of America" and they were far more sophisticated and supplied far more knowledge to the people of the world than those of the Soviet Union. The Mariner spacecraft now on its way to Venus is the most intricate instrument in the history of space science. The accuracy of that shot is comparable to firing a missile from Cape Canaveral and dropping it in this stadium between the the 40-yard lines. Transit satellites are helping our ships at sea to steer a safer course. Tiros satellites have given us unprecedented warnings of hurricanes and storms, and will do the same for forest fires and icebergs. We have had our failures, but so have others, even if they do not admit them. And they may be less public. To be sure, we are behind, and will be behind for some time in manned flight. But we do not intend to stay behind, and in this decade, we shall make up and move ahead. The growth of our science and education will be enriched by new knowledge of our universe and environment, by new techniques of learning and mapping and observation, by new tools and computers for industry, medicine, the home as well as the school. Technical institutions, such as Rice, will reap the harvest of these gains. And finally, the space effort itself, while still in its infancy, has already created a great number of new companies, and tens of thousands of new jobs. Space and related industries are generating new demands in investment and skilled personnel, and this city and this State, and this region, will share greatly in this growth. What was once the furthest outpost on the old frontier of the West will be the furthest outpost on the new frontier of science and space. Houston, your City of Houston, with its Manned Spacecraft Center, will become the heart of a large scientific and engineering community. During the next 5 years the National Aeronautics and Space Administration expects to double the number of scientists and engineers in this area, to increase its outlays for salaries and expenses to $60 million a year; to invest some $200 million in plant and laboratory facilities; and to direct or contract for new space efforts over $1 billion from this Center in this City. To be sure, all this costs us all a good deal of money. This year’s space budget is three times what it was in January 1961, and it is greater than the space budget of the previous eight years combined. That budget now stands at $5,400 million a year--a staggering sum, though somewhat less than we pay for cigarettes and cigars every year. Space expenditures will soon rise some more, from 40 cents per person per week to more than 50 cents a week for every man, woman and child in the United Stated, for we have given this program a high national priority--even though I realize that this is in some measure an act of faith and vision, for we do not now know what benefits await us. But if I were to say, my fellow citizens, that we shall send to the moon, 240,000 miles away from the control station in Houston, a giant rocket more than 300 feet tall, the length of this football field, made of new metal alloys, some of which have not yet been invented, capable of standing heat and stresses several times more than have ever been experienced, fitted together with a precision better than the finest watch, carrying all the equipment needed for propulsion, guidance, control, communications, food and survival, on an untried mission, to an unknown celestial body, and then return it safely to earth, re-entering the atmosphere at speeds of over 25,000 miles per hour, causing heat about half that of the temperature of the sun--almost as hot as it is here today--and do all this, and do it right, and do it first before this decade is out--then we must be bold. I'm the one who is doing all the work, so we just want you to stay cool for a minute. However, I think we're going to do it, and I think that we must pay what needs to be paid. I don't think we ought to waste any money, but I think we ought to do the job. And this will be done in the decade of the sixties. It may be done while some of you are still here at school at this college and university. It will be done during the term of office of some of the people who sit here on this platform. But it will be done. And it will be done before the end of this decade. I am delighted that this university is playing a part in putting a man on the moon as part of a great national effort of the United States of America. Many years ago the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why did he want to climb it. He said, "Because it is there." Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked. Thank you." 20 September 10 Big Lessons from Little Kids
- Franklin P. Jones Have you ever watched a child completely engrossed in a project? They have the unusual ability to be serious about what they’re doing without taking it too seriously. You can do the same with your life. You can live every day with more focus, and every week with more motivation. Here’s what every child knows that you may have forgotten. See if you can apply some of these lessons to your adult life. 1. Breakfast is the most important meal of the day. Even when there’s not a prize in the bottom of the box.
2. Homework blows. Bring work home with you and it’ll ruin your night. And your marriage. And your family. And your life.
3. The only way to know how something works is to completely disassemble it. (This is still good advice when tackling a complex problem. Your plasma TV? Not so much).
4. There’s a reason they don’t give credit cards to 8-year-olds. You’re supposed to save up money before you buy a new toy.
5. Asking questions is how you figure things out. Lots and lots of questions.
6. The coolest adults were the ones who took the time to listen to you. You still want to grow up to be a cool adult, right?
7. Your body was designed for throwing baseballs, shooting hoops, and jumping off diving boards and stuff. In the secret language of children, the word “fitness” doesn’t exist. It’s called “having fun.”
8. Playtime is important and laughter feels good.
9. Too much of anything will give you a tummy ache. Like, say, bourbon.
10. Try to be the friend you were when you were 12: fun-loving and loyal, with no strings attached.
When you act more like a kid, suddenly the world opens up, and you start enjoying yourself again! 漏网之语
以前总是名人名言，后来有名的人越来越多，有的人有了名乱说话，也有的人，因为乱说话变得有名，总之，那些话因为话以外的原因变得或高或低。联合早报的“漏网之语”就极大地满足了窥视的欲望，或明目张胆的反动，或发人深省，或热血沸腾，当然也有屁话，只不过比别处的少些，不如他们的臭。
29 August Sleep more effectively
Tired after getting a full nine hours and still feeling exhausted? You sleep the sleep of the innocent - you nod off quickly, don’t have nightmares and have no trouble breathing - and still you can hardly get up in the morning and seldom feel totally awake, no matter how long you slept the previous night. You are suffering from a clear-cut case of ineffective sleep. The good news is that, starting tonight, you can improve the quality of your sleep. So pull up a pillow and learn how to get more rest while spending less time on your back. 1. Go deep.
3. Worship the sun.
4. Keep the rhythm.
5. Watch the time.
Overlooking the single most important thing you can do for your health is easy with all the clamor surrounding various health products in the marketplace. But good-quality sleep goes far and beyond those products when it comes to restoring your health. And best of all, sleep is free. So try these proven techniques and get the rest you need. 28 August Love your life
However mean your life is, meet it and live it; do not shun it and call it hard names. It is not so bad as you are.It looks poorest when you are richest. The fault-finder will find faults in paradise. Love your life, poor as it is. You may perhaps have some pleasant thrilling, glorious hours, even in a poor-house. The setting sun is reflected from the windows of the alms-house as brightly as from the rich man's abode; the snow melts before its door as in the early spring. I do not see but a quiet mind may live as contentedly there, and have cheering thoughts, as in a palace. The town's poor seem to me often to live the most independnt lives of any. Maybe they are simply great enough to receive without misgiving. Most think that they are above being supported by the town; but it often happens that they are not above supporting themselves by dishonest means, which should be more disreputable. Cultivate poverty like a garden herb, like sage. Do not trouble yourself much to get new things, whether clothes or friends.Turn the old,return to Them. Things do not change;we change.Sell your clothes and keep your thoughts.God will see that you do not want society.If I were confined to a corner of a garret all my days,like a spider,the world would be just as large to me while I had my thoughts about me. --Henry David Thoreau 15 August 天使之城 塞斯是一个天使，专门护送垂死的人上天堂。女主角玛姬是一个心脏外科医生。一天她在进行手术时，一名病人暴毙，当塞斯前来护送病人上路时，注意到了玛姬，她无法应对如此打击， 人总是渴求快乐，但是快乐注定不会永远伴随。单单的一件事不太容易让人快乐，快乐更像是导数，只有把事比事，计算其中的delta，才会体会到所谓的快乐，悲伤的时候，要求一个大导数是很容易的，而本来就高兴的时候，只能求高阶导数才会再次体会快乐，没有几个函数禁得起这么求导的，exp(x)是可以，但这个函数不属于人。人来到世上，就是来经历苦难，毕竟还有欢乐，而且这些欢乐值得天使用永生来换取，也未尝不是一种幸运。只是每日的忙碌让人忘记去体会那些欢乐，把自己计划的完完整整，就好像那些天使，总是要把下一个地点、下一个事件想清楚，就算跳下去，也不能任凭自己下落，却总要找个落点，一切放不下、舍不得，就算所谓的寻欢作乐也成了例行公事，是一个messenger，但不知谁要送，送给谁。
某女与一东航地勤谈恋爱，男给女买了一部手机，被女掉到厕所里，谁也不愿意捡，就废了。过了几天，又同去买手机，买完男的发现兜里（知道月底）就只有一百块了，于是二人去吃了KFC，然后在坐公交回家的路上把新买的手机丢了。男的很郁闷，第二天就没有去上班（也有可能是没钱吃饭，没有力气去上班），结果就造成了“东航历史上第二大事故”：一架空载的货机从上海飞往拉萨，男被开除。 13 August 摘自《货币战争》
当英国在第一次世界大战中将国际放贷者的地位让与美国时，同时失去的是大英帝国的全球霸主地位。国际银行家对这一事件当然记忆犹新，东亚国家的经济在二战以后的迅速崛起，给伦敦华尔街的银行家们敲响了警钟，一切可能阻挠和破坏由他们主导的世界政府和世界统一货币的任何潜在竞争对手，都必须严加防范。 日本作为亚洲最先起飞的经济体，无论是经济增长的质量、工业产品出口竞争力、还是财富积累的速度和规模（中国现在的情况），都迅速达到让国际银行家惊恐的程度。用克林顿时代的美国财政部长萨莫斯（Lawrence Summers）的话说，“一个以日本为顶峰的亚洲经济区造成了大多数美国人的恐惧，他们认为日本对美国所构成的威胁甚至超过了苏联”。 日本战后以模仿西方产品设计起家，然后迅速降低生产成本，最后反过来占领欧美市场。日本在60年代已经开始在汽车工业中大规模使用工业机器人，将人工失误率降到几乎为零。70年代的石油危机使得美国生产的8缸耗油轿车很快就被日本物美价廉的省油车打得落花流水。美国在低技术含量的汽车工业中，已经逐渐丧失了抵抗日本车进攻的能力。进入80年代以来，日本的电子工业突飞猛进，索尼、日立、东芝等一大批电子企业从模仿到创新，三下五除二就掌握了除中央处理器之外的几乎所有集成电路和计算机芯片的制造技术，在工业机器人和廉价劳动力的优势之下，重创了美国电子和计算机硬件行业，日本甚至达到了美国制造的导弹必须使用日本芯片的程度。一度美国几乎人人相信，东芝、日立收购美国的IBM和英特尔只是时间问题，而美国的产业工人则担心日本的机器人会最终抢走自己的饭碗。 美英在80年代初实施的高利率政策固然挽救了美元的信心，同时痛宰了非洲和拉丁美洲的众多发展中国家一把，但高利率也严重杀伤了美国的工业实力，造成了日本产品80年代大举进占美国市场的局面。 当日本举国沉浸在一片“日本可以说不”的欣快感高潮之时，一场对日本金融的绞杀战已在国际银行家的部署之中了。
1985年9月（中国自2005年7月21起实施浮动汇率制度），国际银行家终于开始出手了。由美英日德法5国财长在纽约广场宾馆（Plaza Hotel）签署了“广场协议”，目的是让美元对其它主要货币“有控制”地贬值，日本银行在美国财长贝克的高压之下，被迫同意升值。在“广场协议”签订后的几个月之内，日元对美元就由250日元比1美元，升值到149日元兑换1美元。 1987年10月（2005.7. + 2年1月 = 2007.8.，美国次级按揭贷款证券引发全球股市暴跌），纽约股市崩盘。美国财政部长贝克向日本首相中曾根施加压力，让日本银行继续下调利率，使得美国股市看起来比日本股市更有吸引力一些，以吸引东京市场的资金流向美国。贝克威胁说如果民主党上台将在美日贸易赤字问题上严厉对付日本，然后贝克又拿出胡萝卜，保证共和党继续执政，老布什定会大大地促进美日亲善，中曾根低头了，很快日元利率跌到仅有2.5%，日本银行系统开始出现流动性（Liquidity）泛滥，大量廉价资本涌向股市和房地产，东京的股票年成长率高达40%（上市和深市），房地产甚至超过90%（上海的房市不止了），一个巨大的金融泡沫开始成型。 在如此之短的时间内，货币兑换发生的这种剧烈变化，将日本的出口生产商打得五脏六腑大出血，为了弥补由于日元升值所导致的出口下降的亏空，企业纷纷从银行低息借贷炒股票，日本银行的隔夜拆借市场迅速成为世界上规模最大的中心。到1988年（2007年，工行成为全球市值最大的银行），世界前10名规模最大的银行被日本包揽。此时，东京股票市场已经在3年之内涨了300%，房地产更达到令人瞠目的程度，东京一个地区的房地产总盘以美元计算，超过了当时美国全国的房地产总值。日本的金融系统已经到了岌岌可危的地步。 本来，如果没有外部极具破坏性的震荡，日本也许可能以和缓的紧缩逐渐实现软着陆，但是日本万万没有想到的是，这是一场国际银行家不宣而战的金融绞杀行动。 鉴于日本金融实力的强大，如果在传统的常规金融战场上取胜并无必胜的把握，要对日本金融系统进行致命的一击，就必须动用美国刚研制出来的金融核弹：股票指数期货（Stock Index Futures）。 1982 年，美国芝加哥商业交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange）最早“研制”成功股票指数期货这一威力空前的金融武器。它本是用来抢夺纽约证券交易所生意的工具。股票指数无非就是一组上市公司的清单，经过加权计算得出的数据，而股票指数期货就是赌这个清单上的公司的未来股票价格走势，买卖双方都不拥有，也不打算拥有这些股票本身。 股票市场玩的就是信心二字，大规模做空股指期货必然导致股票市场崩盘，这一点已经在1987年10月的纽约股市暴跌中得到有效验证。 80年代日本的经济腾飞使日本人多少产生了一股目空四海的优越感。当日本股票价格高到没有一位理智的西方评论家能够理解的程度时，日本人仍然有大量理由相信自己是独一无二的。一名当时在日本的美国投资专家这样说道：“在这里有一种日本股市不可能下跌的信念，在87、88年，甚至89年时仍然是这样。他们觉得有一种非常特别的东西存在于他们的股票市场中，存在于整个日本民族之中，这种特殊的东西能够使日本违背所有存在于世界各地的规律。” 在东京的股票市场上，保险公司是一个非常重要的投资者。当国际银行家们派出的摩根斯坦利和所罗门兄弟公司等一批投资银行作为主要突击力量深入日本时，他们手握大量现金四处寻找潜在的目标，他们的公文包里塞满了“股指认估期权”（Stock Index Put Option）这种当时在日本闻所未闻的金融新产品。日本的保险公司正是对此颇有兴趣的一帮人，在日本人看来，这些美国人必定是脑子里进了水，用大量现金去买根本不可能发生的日本股市暴跌的可能，结果日本保险业爽快地承诺下来。双方赌的就是日经指数的走向，如果指数下跌，美国人赚钱，日本人赔钱，如果指数上升，情况正好反过来。 可能连日本的大藏省也无法统计到底有多少这样的金融衍生合同在股市暴跌之前成交，这种无人察觉的“金融病毒”，在一个几乎没有监管的、秘密的、类似柜台交易的地下市场上，在一片繁荣的虚幻中蓬蓬勃勃地迅速蔓延着。 1989年12月29日(2009，奥运能开的话也结束了)，日本股市达到了历史巅峰，日经指数冲到了38915点，大批的股指沽空期权终于开始发威。日经指数顿挫。1990年1月12日，美国人使出了杀手锏，美国交易所突然出现“日经指数认沽权证”（Nikkei Put Warrants）这一新的金融产品，高盛公司从日本保险业手中买到的股指期权被转卖给丹麦王国，丹麦王国将其卖给权证的购买者，并承诺在日经指数走低时支付收益给“日经指数认沽权证”的拥有者。丹麦王国在这里只是让高盛公司借用一下她的信誉，对高盛手中的日经指数期权销售起着超级加强的作用。该权证立刻在美国热卖，大量美国投资银行纷纷效仿，日本股市再也吃不住劲了，“日经指数认沽权证”上市热销不到一个月就全面土崩瓦解了。 股票市场的崩溃率先波及到日本的银行业和保险业，最终是制造业。日本的制造业从前可以在股票市场上以比美国竞争对手至少便宜一半的成本筹集资金，这一切都随着股票市场的低迷而成为昨日黄花。从1990年算起，日本经济陷入了长达十几年的衰退，日本股市暴跌了70%，房地产连续14年下跌。在《金融战败》一书中，作者吉川元忠认为就财富损失的比例而言，日本1990年金融战败的后果几乎和第二次世界大战中战败的后果相当。 威廉.恩格在评价日本在金融的溃败时是这样说的：
2006 年夏，美国新任财政部长保尔森访华，当听到他热情洋溢地“祝中国成功”时，人们背后不禁冒出丝丝寒气。不知他的前任贝克当年拉着日本首相中曾根的手时，是不是也说过同样的话。
居民马哈蒂尔找到小区片警格林斯潘报案，说家里东西被偷了，小偷可能是惯犯索罗斯。片警格林斯潘嘿嘿一笑，说：“也不能全怪小偷嘛，应该多从自己身上找原因。谁让你们家的锁好撬呢？” 居民马哈蒂尔不满地说：“那小偷怎么不去偷中国和印度呢？” 片警格林斯潘叹了一口气，说：“中国和印度的院墙太高了，索罗斯爬进爬出的不方便，要是再摔下来出了人命，不还是我的事吗？” 小偷索罗斯在旁边听了之后，冷笑一声：“在他们的院墙上掏几个洞不就解决问题了吗？” 片警格林斯潘赶紧看看四周，小声说：“已经派保尔森去中国了，听说２００６年底就可以挖开几个大窟窿。” 小偷索罗斯听了大喜，拿出手机就开始给同伴们发短信，“人傻，钱多，速去中国。”
03 August 泥鸽靶（FIASCO）前段时间看了《泥鸽靶》，达到了扫盲的效果，相信在不远的将来还是会忘掉，所以趁热打铁，将一点心得记录如下。 所有的金融衍生品都是期权或期货的某种组合。 期权是未来买卖的权利，需要交保证金，大约1/4的期权是成功交易的。 期货是未来买卖的义务，无须保证金。 买空，也叫多头交易，借入资金，买入期货，高价抛出，还钱。 卖空，看跌时，借入股票抛出，跌时，低价买入，归还股票，当然不能白借，但价钱都是原来商量好的。
股票是最常见的投资，美国股市的市值总额约15万亿美元，欧洲加起来和美国的差不多，中国的则为2万亿美元左右。与股票市场相比，衍生品市场则更为广阔，一个重要的原因就是操作的多样性和灵活性，衍生品的价值可以和债券以及股票联系在一起，将不同的期权和期货打包出售，只要搭配的巧妙，在这里不存在合理不合理的问题，让买者看起来觉得有利可图，就能从中赚取大量的佣金，至于实际是赔是赚，那就是很遥远的事情了。可能到了那个时候，买主配了很多钱后会来告你，到时候庭外和解或者该赔多少赔多少，毕竟还是有几率不赔的。写这本书的是摩根士丹利的前雇员，就是赚佣金的，而买主则是某某银行，或某个县的财务官。一笔交易一般都会达到1亿到几十亿美金，佣金则为交易额的4%左右。整个衍生品市场的规模谁也说不清，因为这种投资是不要求出现在资产负债表中的，几万亿，甚至几十万亿都是很保守的估计，而且都十分生猛。 衍生品有很多种，有的甚至就和彩票差不多。 比如一种叫PERLS(Principal Exchange Rate Linked Securities)，本金与汇率连接证券，这个名字并没有规定的取法，因为这种组合实在是太随意了。它不像普通的国债之类的，到了时候把本金还给你，再给你一定的利息。这种证券不承诺偿还本金，到时候给你的钱要通过本金乘以一个由一些国家汇率的变化所决定的公式。实际上，也就成了关于某些汇率的赌博，押对了的收益可能是几倍，但押错了的后果也十分严重。这种公式的复杂度足以保证预测是不太可能的，但是由于发行这些证券的都是很有声望的公司或政府组织，所以卖出去也不成问题。 另外的很多种债券都可以用一种组合来概括，一部分是已有的高风险、高回报率、低投资等级债券，比如墨西哥的调节债、菲律宾的电力公司债券或者泰国的什么什么；另一部分则是低风险、低回报、高投资等级的债券，比如美国政府的零息债券（拆分债券）。投资等级是由第三方评定的投资参考，反映本金收回的可能性，由标准普尔或穆迪评定，因为比如保险公司或地方财政，法律不允许投资等级低于AA的项目，所以为了将这些组合出售，其中的政府债券（AAA）或其他一些好看的东西就必不可少。对于这样的一个组合，标普也不会顺利地标上AA或AAA，但是它可以给期中最安全的部分评级，或者在AAA后面加一个R（受限制），只要调整一下字体，看起来还是AA级甚至更高。组合中，低风险的比例是很小的，起码资金额是小的，同样的一股美国政府债券和一股别的债券，面值都是一百，美国债券贴现可能只有50，但是那种债券可能就要几千。至于最后的收益，还是由高收益债券决定。 所以看到我们的财政部手里拿着几千亿美国国债时，不要劈头盖脸就骂，那些人也不是纯猪头。 所以看到美国人一个劲要人民币升值时，不要以为就像新闻说的是为了什么逆差顺差。中国的汇率本来就是不正常的，最常见的就是报刊价格，越是换算成美元数字越大，所以升值是不足为奇的。但问题就在于我们一直坚持的汇率管理制度，也就是所谓的紧盯美国汇率。这种政策的后果已经出现过。原来的墨西哥、泰国都坚持这样的做法，墨西哥的可能并不著名，但是泰国的绝对印象深刻。当时的国际游资，或者说索罗斯更响亮些，就是卖空泰铢，也就是购买结构性票据（就是那种赌汇率的债券），这些资金进入，购买了泰国国债，货币。泰国为了保证汇率，必须使用更多的泰铢吸纳这些游资，那么市场可流通的资金势必减少，于是大大印钞票，或者什么什么的，东西没有增加，货币贬值压力增大，结果泰国政府一宣布废止紧盯汇率，泰铢汇率急转直下，以后的事大家也就都再清楚不过了。 现在人民币面临升值。中国前几年的贸易顺差自己说有一千亿美元，但是有人从他国逆推，真正数额不过1/3，也就是说大部分为非贸易资金流入，也就是热钱。中国的市场不存在衍生品交易，这些钱进来只能采用原始一点的办法，换成人民币，投资，等到升值以后换成外币逃出去。热钱只有投资才能保证赚钱，只换来换去是赚不了钱的，所以要投资楼市，投资基础设施建设，很多都说外资不相信中国股市，但是为什么偏偏这一年股市突然好转，也许还有其他地方吧，说不定也投资了生猪生产。在这样的情况下，人民币升值就不单单是损失多少外汇储备的事情了，只要美国不通货膨胀，到时候那些美国国债购买力还是不变的，现在的问题是游资捞走多少钱的问题。保尔森一年来几十次，如果说是哪个投资银行让他来的，确实有点夸张，但是如果美国的大公司、地方财政手里都攥着大把与中国汇率相关结构性债券，一万亿到几万亿的钱扔到中国造大楼，美化中国市容，然后眼巴巴望着保尔森时，让人民币升值就成了最脚踏实地的为美国人民服务的事情，这里的为人民服务决不是口号上的，那些基金、养老金、保险，也许在你看来你买的是这些东西，但是到了他们手里这就会转变成这样或那样的衍生品。天晓得中国经济会不会崩溃对于天是没有意义的，人民币是要升值的，而且已经在升，美国人是赚钱的，因为这种比所谓的贸易顺差要实惠得多。房价跌不跌不重要，因为其中的一部分是直接给外国人的，只是看他们够不够狠，敢不敢拿。与其买房，不如吃肉，在国际游资疯狂投资中国能繁母猪培育的前夕，一定要抓住机会，吸取楼市投资的教训，生一头，消灭一头，生两头，消灭一双，让中国猪的膘长在中国人自己的腰上，貌似有点歧义，但是领会精神吧。 另外，还有一种是很卑鄙的。最简单的模型是这样的，一桶90元的真金，一桶10元的镀金，都买下，第二天把真金以90元卖掉，然后说自己赚了40元。看起来有点头脑简单又自命不凡的意思。其实这种说法还是行得通的，两桶金买进来以后的成本是每桶50元，卖掉一桶真的，收益40元，我们平常的思维是，卖掉那桶镀金是肯定还要赔40元，所以是不赔不赚，但是如果把那种镀金珍藏几十年，声称自己有一种价值50元的金子，这就是掩盖当时的财务危机，至于那桶假金子，许多年以后的事情，谁还知道。进行这个交易的就是日本人，而摩根士丹利的任务就是找到一种每股几千元的债券和每股几十元的政府零息债券，把他们混起来，卖给日本人，日本人再从其中把前一种挑出来，让士丹利去卖，卖好的钱，士丹利留下佣金，剩下的再给日本人。倒手之间，摩根士丹利赚了七千万美元，而日本人则可以在账目上凭空多出几十亿。当然，不能保证我们的中国银行或者工商银行在狗急跳墙时，不会采用这么一个办法。当然，日本人现在已经想出了更好的办法，把养老金帐户抹掉，这种在中国实施起来应该更加便利，毕竟我们还有解放军。
刚才当当的书到了，快递推托没有1毛钱了，我说算了，其实他已经算错了，我很不厚道地没有提醒他。
《改善你的视力》
《爱与寂寞》.克里希那穆提. 31 Juli 重新认识自己 早晨在公交上，听到一句“战火洗礼的钢铁之师，热血铸就的英雄部队”，以为又要夸伊拉克足球队，结果是说八一。战火中出来的就是不一样，比如伊拉克的3号光头就很不一般，有事没事就倒勾一下，就好像很多年前世界杯上那个夹球过人的球员，虽然不记得是哪个队的了，但是印象深刻，难以磨灭。伊拉克拿了冠军，似乎美国人应该是仅次于伊拉人高兴的，但是中国人民管不了那么多，一定要好好夸夸伊拉克人民，狠狠数落一下朱家军，一定要用比、兴的手法，将恨铁不成钢、空有一身绝技但无处施展的郁闷压抑痛楚的心情言简意赅的表达出来，让足协的那班猪头们听到后，觉得如果不把集训地从昆明迁到巴格达，就对不起国家和人民，顺便也对不起党。
最近厨艺大涨，蒜黄鸡蛋、豆角炒肉、空心菜、手撕包菜已不在话下，前两天买了个瓜，绿的，外面很光滑，不是西葫芦，但酷似西葫芦，到一个蔬菜网站找了找，还是不知道是什么，顺便发现包菜学名叫甘蓝。炒起来味道还不错，有点自然的甜味，暂定叫sha瓜。
上周末在学人书店看到一本《重新认识你自己》，克里希那穆提，翻了翻，觉得有点意思，想到当当买，结果断货，于是想看的欲望更甚，找到一本电子扫描的。
你不能依赖任何人，事实上并没有向导，没有老师，也没有权威，只有靠你自己——你和他人，以及你和世界的关系——除此以外，一无所恃。你一旦了解了这个真相，很可能产生两个后果，一是因绝望而生出玩世不恭的犬儒心态，而是从面对现实中认清，没有任何人，而只有你自己才能为这个世界、为自己、为自己的想法、感觉、行为负起责任，然后所有的自怜才会消失。通常我们总是怪罪别人，这其实只是另一种自怜的形式罢了。 17 Juli StandardsPublic-Key Cryptography Standards (PKCS)The Public-Key Cryptography Standards are specifications produced by RSA Laboratories in cooperation with secure systems developers worldwide for the purpose of accelerating the deployment of public-key cryptography. First published in 1991 as a result of meetings with a small group of early adopters of public-key technology, the PKCS documents have become widely referenced and implemented. Contributions from the PKCS series have become part of many formal and de facto standards, including ANSI X9 documents, PKIX, SET, S/MIME, and SSL. Note: PKCS #2 and PKCS #4 have been incorporated into PKCS #1 PKCS #1: RSA Cryptography Standard PKCS #3: Diffie-Hellman Key Agreement Standard PKCS #5: Password-Based Cryptography Standard PKCS #6: Extended-Certificate Syntax Standard PKCS #7: Cryptographic Message Syntax Standard PKCS #8: Private-Key Information Syntax Standard PKCS #9: Selected Attribute Types PKCS #10: Certification Request Syntax Standard PKCS #11: Cryptographic Token Interface Standard PKCS #12: Personal Information Exchange Syntax Standard PKCS #13: Elliptic Curve Cryptography Standard PKCS #15: Cryptographic Token Information Format Standard
IT Applications in Banking ISO/DIS 15782-1 Certificate management for financial services -- Part 1: Public Key Certificates ISO/FDIS 15782-2 Banking -- Certificate Management -- Part 2: Certificate Extensions
昨晚柿炒蛋，色得不够，香尚可，味颇好。 07 Juli 777777是一个美妙绝伦的数字，即使是我们这些生长在社会主义红旗下的，也对之有深深的向往。就好像去年的666，以及明年的888，有些东西一想到只有一次，就会不由自主地告诉自己要珍惜，但是哪一天不是只过一次，只不过一天与一天之间惊人的相似让我们忽略了它的意义。于是，忽然发现，毕业已经一年，一年间或再前的很多片断又在头脑中闪现，发现又是一部烂片，这是一种朴素的烂，而非满城或无极那种奢靡的烂，满城尽带黄金甲，不是一般傻，看了很多遍，每次看一会就能安然入睡，不过那句朕不给你，你不能抢还是蛮入眼的，只是不如一般人我不告诉他那种常用，想想可以在阿姨再来收报纸时用，但是阿姨都很好，也就算了。无极这种极品一直没看，等到遇到重大挫折时备用吧。
周五考了数值方法，被阴了。还以为名字中带瑞的都是贵人，看来只有放在中间的才是。开始说的很好，以为和其他一样随随便便就过去了，看了卷子才知道这就叫诱敌深入。就好像人家给你个手榴弹，说是假的，随便玩玩吧，一拉弦就自己爆掉了。虽然下学期还有三门课，不过考完终归是好的，两三个月来事情拖拖拉拉，没有断过，今天豁然开朗了，只剩下吴耀琨这朵乌云貌似要飘到9月9再答辩。
许多事物，人只能用一种理论、一种结构去描述。会长久想不出，但是一想到，会觉得本来就是这个东西，甚至会替代原本的事物，比如苯的结构，比如四元体，比如矩阵。这些可以看作是事物到人思维的投影，诸多投影张成的空间让人觉得世界万般变化，如果找到最贴切的投影，界定正交系，可能就能实现共产了。
那天又去去年打论文那家店打论文，莫名感觉到四肢健全带来的愉悦感，谁知道回去，就把胳膊肘整个按在图钉上，图钉虽小，但它是昂立的。疼倒不疼，拔的时候也没啥感觉，就只当放血积攒人品了。但某人提议会不会破伤风，并建议我再去校医院扎一针，以便和刚才这个成双配对。时间太晚，也就算了，只恍惚记得百度搜来的四肢乏力、头痛头晕、烦躁不安、打哈欠、张嘴困难的表现症状，这些在第二天都得到了印证。四肢乏力、头痛、打哈欠是因为早晨要早起，晚上只睡了四小时，诸多破事搞得口腔溃疡，至于烦躁不安大概就是心理暗示了。于是那一天又对破伤风进行了较深入的研究，认识到破伤风的治疗十分困难，死亡率特别高，24小时内来一针还是有救的。不过回去还是没有打，抱着爱死死，爱活活的决心就睡过去了。实践证明，我经受住了破伤风杆菌的考验（也可能是暂时，潜伏期可达几个月）。
另外，我还是做了其他抵抗，首先内服了头孢拉定，其次在周五和周日去游泳池进行了体外消毒。学游泳还是要从娃娃抓起。另外，黄小p同学静浮的时候也会沉底，让我们开了眼界，这种沉鱼落雁的潜质实在是不利于游泳的学习。
最近基本就不看电视了，破事太多，也没啥可看的，原本计划每天一集看到六月底的lost在几周前突击看掉了，其中jack说的恐惧时给自己五秒钟，觉的很有道理。侯耀文过世了，但是一群说相声的深情起来，开追悼会，还泪流满面，觉得太假。香港回归纪念晚会上，胡锦涛和刘德华的对话，是啥不重要，讲出来太没意思。
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我对你有礼貌，不是要你对我有礼貌，就算你对我不礼貌，我都会对你有礼貌……我永远教导年轻人，没有人可以令你感觉到卑鄙，除非是你自己心甘情愿去做卑鄙的事。 
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